20 July 2012

What Next?

The attack on Israeli civilians in Bulgaria has reverberated around the world, ringing in Breaking News ticker tape headlines with extensive coverage in international media outlets. Speculation seemed the path to follow for many anchors, as the day moved on, researchers feeding them an earpiece full about the coinciding anniversary of the 1994 attack on a Jewish center in Buenos Aires. At this point I relaxed my zapping finger and settled on watching one particular anchor on an American news channel, struggling with connecting the dots, as he was fed the information he paused then mumbled a disjointed sentence, almost asking “are we saying this is Hamas”...

While the symbolic aspect of the coincidence bounced right off this anchors head, he then went on to another item quoting Netanyahu blaming Iran.

While Netanyahu is reputed to have a high quotient figure, this symbolic coincidence would have used up very little of his alleged (unharnessed, to date) intelligence to figure out whodunit. Symbolism often follows perceived and actual revenge, but recent evidenced attempts by Iran to strike Israelis around the world pretty much seals this non-conundrum in the first place. The only real question remaining at this point was who got the contract. Later in the day, Netanyahu provided the answer, adding Hezbollah as the executioners. Mole rat Hasan Nasrallah then came on air, looking pale and pushing maximum density (Bunker Syndrome), proclaiming mea non culpa, smugly smiling while promising a big surprise for the Zionist entity.

The Israeli press at this time was running stories quoting the Bulgarian president saying “the Mossad did not warn”. However, Haaretz linked in their major piece to an article describing an incident concerning a bus driver heading to pick up Israelis with some unaccounted for packages on his bus. Mossad agents consequently met up with their Bulgarian peers warning them of lax security measures surrounding the airport. It then dawned on me that the Bulgarian president must rely on Mossad more than on his own security mechanisms.

On American media the talk then turned to “what next”, with wildfire speculation coming from pundits and a gamut of experts, as Netanyahu talked of a harsh response. This had the result of immediate reference to what we at SJ term the Big One – the seemingly impeding Israeli raid on Iran’s nuclear facilities.

So, what’s next indeed? We can wait upon the paranoid schizoid blogger from Seattle to delve into the inner workings of his hydrocephalus suspended imagination, or collate a few realistic scenarios: Iranians diplomats tend to disappear, while Hezbollah military leaders tend to get a cranium shearing migraine. Iranian nuclear scientists and generals are susceptible to work related risks, which, one suspects, may get a little riskier. Iranian and Hezbollah infrastructure have a history of crumbling or spinning out of control in a variety of means ranging from airborne to cyberborne. Technology and delivery are constantly on the march, so past infrastructure mishaps will exponentially expand.

Then there’s the Big One. While we at SJ don’t believe that the timing is right, we know that all other diplomatic options have by now been exhausted. European leaders have mostly internalized that the clerics will have no qualms striking in Europe or anywhere for that matter. The timing for the Big One is questionable. As to how and what - a capability pilot preview was set in Syria with a highly efficient reactor demolition job. The devil was in the details.

While most believe that a strike will only delay Iranian progress and buy time, we appreciate that when the dust settles, this notion will be reconsidered.