18 March 2015

Israeli elections: exit polls and exit pols


It is not that you can teach an old dog to perform new tricks, it is just that the old dog has a sufficient stock of old tricks, as it appears.

Once again the hopes of Bibi's aspiring rivals were crushed, in quite a cruel way. The relentless waves of pre-elections polls, predicting a win of the Labor+, were a heady and intoxicating brew - that left a serious hangover after it appeared to be misleading.

So Bibi will play the game of coalition building again, this time quite easily, if the numbers are to be believed (some small adjustments could be caused by remaining 1% of the votes to be counted still). It seems that getting the majority coalition of 67 seats will be a child's play for the time being.

But then the question about the reasons Bibi started the whole elections process start to surface. Ostensibly, Bibi's chief motivator was the impossibility to keep Yair Lapid, with his rather amorphous and vision-less Yesh Atid ( "There's a Future") toeing the line. Be it as it may, the previous coalition of four parties will be replaced by a seven-party bazaar, where the ultra-orthodox factions, back at the helm after a dry and hungry years of opposition, will do their best to replenish their greedy stomachs. Let's see Bibi forcing these ones to toe the line.

And now I shall go out on a limb and predict the direct cause of the next elections:

Yes, Aryeh Deri, the unrepentant convict, the racist, the liar, one of the last beaters of the dying ethnic political horse and all around scoundrel. You see, the Shas' 7 mandates is rather a painful loss of about 5 seats from the customary 11-12 Shas used to get. This time the fail is due to the internal split, caused by Deri's rivalry with Eli Yishay, previously his deputy in Shas. It is true that Yachad, led by Yishay, failed to gain enough votes to pass the minimum required, but for the moment the voices of Yishay's followers are lost to Shas.

So the post-election festivities by Shas were rather an expression of Schadenfreude than a celebration of achievement. Now, it is almost certain that in a few months or so Mr Deri will decide that the time came to consolidate his power in the Mizrahi orthodox community and to increase his presence in the Knesset. And the only way to do this is... you can see it now.

As for the losers:

Mr. Herzog... too bad. You should have seen in advance that being a nice guy is not the ticket. If in the future some supernatural powers grant you sufficient leadership qualities, including charisma, demagoguery, ability to cheat your way to power and lie unblinkingly, plus... let's call it by its name: a pair of balls, then maybe you'll have a chance. Oh well, we know it wouldn't happen, don't we?

 Mr Yishay... my only regret is that you couldn't have taken your ex-chief, Mr Deri, with you into the wilderness of normal life. It's a pity, since the differences between the two of you are so minor you would have made a perfect pair of snake-oil peddlers somewhere in the boonies. At least this way you can have a early start and then make him your junior partner at some point in the future. Deal?

Ms Gal-on... chiao. Somebody else, no doubt, will take up the job of selling siren songs to our kids. Worthy, even if not very profitable business, ain't it?

Update: due to relentless public pressure Ms Gal-On agreed to continue with the siren song. So consider the farewell canceled.

Oh yes, and re Bibi's despicable behavior during the pre-elections time and the elections day - read this. No surprises there, though. But there is a list of excellent questions in this article, regarding Bibi's future activities. Unfortunately, knowing the subject matter a bit, the answer to most of the questions is "no". The Do Nothing man will keep doing it.

24 comments:

Michael Sedley said...

Biggest Winners, besides Bibi are the Arabs, and Kachlon
The Arabs took the new threshold, designed by Liberman to destroy them, and used it to make them stronger than ever.


And Kachlon is kingmaker, he is strong enough to bring down the Government, or even to hand the keys to Herzog.


Biggest looser (besides Ishai) are the pollsters, we are used to them geting it wrong BEFORE the elections, when they have a million excuses, but the EXIT POLL should be at least close to reality

SnoopyTheGoon said...

I am quite confident Kachlon will behave, it is the other guy that will bring the coalition down. But we shall see.

As for the Arab party: there are signs that it will self-destruct from internal rivalry fairly soon. Not that I know whether it's good or bad.

BHCh said...

I don't know the make-up of coalition yet, but Bibi wasn't born yesterday. It will be hard for 7 MKs from Shas to pull the plug on the government, even if the coalition has exactly 67 MKs.

peterthehungarian said...

The main factors Bibi must say a big thank you:
The Israeli and international media...
The Zionist Camp demonization campaign...
The openly intervening NGO-s and foreign governments
and the biggest - Obama, the White House and the State department

BHCh said...

Such a huge jump in the numbers of Arab MKs... What was it that caused it?

SnoopyTheGoon said...

Not saying it will be simple, but when the time comes Deri will find a few sympathetic folks, no worries on this account. He is quite good at dirty jobs like that.

SnoopyTheGoon said...

Oh, but also his tactical maneuvering during the last days before elections. It might have looked clumsy, but was highly effective, as we can see.

peterthehungarian said...

I think it wouldn't have been this effective without the factors on my list.

Dick Stanley said...

I know you're not so fond of Bibi, Mr. Goon, but I do think his winning is the best thing that could have happened, at this time around, anyhow. Until we get rid of Barry Hussein. Unless he's replaced by Nurse Ratched, of course. She might well be worse.

Dick Stanley said...

Interesting about the pollsters screwing up. They are often wrong in the US these days, apparently because they are still using land lines and most people have cells. That and the ones run by biased organizations whose bias extends into the polling.

SnoopyTheGoon said...

Yes indeed, Peter, this is why I said "also".

SnoopyTheGoon said...

I rightly don't know what to say. You are right re my sympathy to the man - it is not there ;-)

But the alternative was also not very appetizing, to tell the truth.

One thing is clear - we here are entering some rough waters, at least for the next two years. Probably more.

SnoopyTheGoon said...

This time it was really a miracle. The exit polls were very well synchronized and every pollster has shown the same numbers - and they all were wrong.

So far no reasonable explanation for that phenomenon.

Jimithefox said...

It is one of those occasions when we need guidance from the mighty WC Fields:
"I never vote for anyone, I always vote against."

Stan said...

Peter,
Do you see part of the vote for Bibi being a vote against the the Obama administration and the State Department in general, or was it some specific action the White House took that caused a backlash?

Stan

Dick Stanley said...

They mjst be sharing the numbers. One group does the polling and all benefit, possibly for a fee.

SnoopyTheGoon said...

Not exactly a joke here. Many people indeed vote against...

SnoopyTheGoon said...

I don't know what Peter thinks about it, Stan, but the well orchestrated campaign against Bibi's speech was, most probably, the cause of a good part of the backlash.

SnoopyTheGoon said...

If they did, it was the first time in history - at least the first I know off. In previous elections they have each produced their own, with quite a few differences. This time there were practically none.

Eventually some reporter will get to the bottom of this story, I hope.

peterthehungarian said...

Sorry for the late answer. I suggest to read this article, it explains better my points. The vote was against the US admin open anti-Netanyahu intervention and the childish insults against him.

Rob Miller said...

The 'United Arab list' isn't going to stay together. The divide between the factions is to deep. The only reason they did tis time was Obama money, and promises by the likes of Buji Herzog that he would give scum like Tibi and Zoabi ministries.

SnoopyTheGoon said...

That is true, the rift between the factions is too deep to hold them together for a long time. However, in any anti-Zionist initiative they will vote together.

Stan said...

Thanks

Stan said...

Thank You