13 April 2013

Moderate confidence that shook the Pentagon

A single sentence that came out of DIA (Defense Intelligence Agency) says the following:

DIA assess with moderate confidence the North currently has nuclear weapons capable of delivery by ballistic missiles, however, the reliability will be low.
And the reaction of the establishment to the revelation? Here it is:
The Pentagon was caught by surprise Thursday when sensitive information about North Korea's nuclear program from a classified March 2013 report was "mistakenly" declassified and discussed during an open hearing on Capitol Hill, raising questions about how such a significant error could have occurred.
It is somewhat confusing, I don't mind saying this. As a connoisseur of spy fiction and all spying-related drivel in the media, I could see a few possible negative results of this "revelation":
  1. Endangering a Humint asset in place in NK. Hardly likely.
  2. Endangering some high-tech tool(s) of gathering intelligence about NK. Mmm... I bet not.
  3. Giving the other side (NK, that is) a temporary advantage in the unending "I know that you know that I know that you know..." game. This could make the diplomatic effort of defusing the situation a bit more difficult. Possibly, but very farfetched. Besides the story would have leaked anyway soon, so what the heck?
  4. Demonstrating another time that the mere term "intelligence" is becoming more and more of a label for a bunch of no good money wasters that couldn't find their backsides without... but you know the drill. After all, just yesterday the chorus was singing to the tune of "no ability to launch nukes", and suddenly today the tune changes? Uhu... now we are getting somewhere.
  5. Destroying and thus taking away from some persons very (but very) high up in the administration hierarchy the advantage of deniability. Now that one looks like a winner.
There probably are a few other possibles I missed, but the list above should suffice for the purpose.

Classified, shmassified...

6 comments:

SnoopyTheGoon said...

Remember the NIEs' "Iranian nuclear assessment" under George Bush? Why it was the "Burning bush" of reports, this one, not so much!

SnoopyTheGoon said...

Launch they can do. Hit what is the question. Seems Guam would be a stretch, Hawaii impossible and California out of the question.

SnoopyTheGoon said...

Oh, I have a hunch about whys of that matter ;-)

SnoopyTheGoon said...

All these are minor targets, after all we all know they are focusing on Austin right now ;-)

SnoopyTheGoon said...

That's where I live. I fear being run down in a bicycle race and/or marathon more than a Nork nuke.

SnoopyTheGoon said...

Oh... Another Austinite... good!