... when it says that it wants a ceasefire. I also believe Turkey and Qatar; for exactly same reason.
The plot below shows number of rockets fired into Israel. I did a very simplistic trend analysis on it.
Trends are hard to analyze. Too many factors. Here are the major ones:
- Hamas only spent about a third of its original arsenal.
- Israel destroyed an unknown proportion.
- Hamas footsoldiers are being eliminated
- Ditto for the launching gear.
- Fuel is running out.
My gut feel - Hamas won't be able to continue shooting over 10 missiles a day for even a week. The rate of bombardment of Israeli towns will slow down substantially whether Israel will "negotiate" a ceasefire or not.
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