02 August 2014

Why I believe Hamas...

... when it says that it wants a ceasefire.  I also believe  Turkey and Qatar; for exactly same reason.  

The plot below shows number of rockets fired into Israel. I did a very simplistic trend analysis on it. 
Trends are hard to analyze. Too many factors. Here are the major ones:

-  Hamas only spent about a third of its original arsenal. 

- Israel destroyed an unknown proportion. 
- Hamas footsoldiers are being eliminated
- Ditto for the launching gear. 
- Fuel is running out. 

My gut feel - Hamas won't be able to continue shooting over 10 missiles a day for even a week.  The rate of bombardment of Israeli towns will slow down substantially whether Israel will "negotiate" a ceasefire or not.